McCain, The Crisis, and Polling

John McCain's campaign has taken a major hit from the failure of the bailout bill. This is particularly interesting because he supported the bill, and actually worked to get House GOP members to vote for it. However, what we may be seeing is a backfire at McCain's calculated suspension of his campaign to go to Washington to help reach a deal.

1. He didn't actually suspend the campaign.
2. He didn't do much in Washington while he was there.
3. He originally vowed not to debate if there wasn't a deal by Friday. He did debate and
4. the deal was reached over the weekend.
5. Finally, the deal didn't pass.

This leads me to suspect that the public is starting to see McCain as ineffectual. Certainly, the poll numbers for yesterday won't have a full impact of the House vote yesterday, if it shows any impact. But the fact remains, McCain was in freefall before the bailout failed, and it seems that the economy was already the reason. His erratic moves last week and ultimate capitulation to Obama makes him appear weak and perhaps a little out of touch. And now that the deal he susposedly stopped campaigning to help get passed failed, he has positioned himself to look ineffectual. These are all things the Obama campaign wants. It's almost as though McCain is campaigning for Obama.

More Bainbridge

More Bainbridge:

I’ve waffled on the bailout, but the more facts I’ve learned about the current state of the financial sector, the more I’ve come to the reluctant conclusion that this is one of those projects so big and with so much at risk that government intervention is justifiable.

Too big to fail is bad public policy. But I’m persuaded that the very real prospect of too many to fail presents an entirely different question. We are faced with a situation in which a systemic credit freeze will take down not just one or two banks, but many, including not just Wall Street but also local and regional banks. In turn, as more banks fail, it will become increasingly difficult for non-financial businesses to borrow. The ripple effect could be disastrous:

The Bailout and The Waltons

Stephen Bainbridge suggests watching the Waltons to prepare for what could be a coming depression. He doesn't seem thrilled that the bailout failed.

Speculative Musings

I'm still trying to make sense of everything that's happened in the last 72 hours. I'm not an economist, so I'm relying on expert's opinion about what would happen, economically, if the bailout wasn't passed. But of equal concern was what would happen, politically, if the bailout was passed. In an ideal world, the taxpayers would have been paid back, and then some, and I was hoping that the profits could have gone against the debt and prevented or at least mitigated future tax increases to pay the debt off later. But we don't live in an ideal world, (because, I suspect, in this ideal world, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in, and I might also have better hair) and what worried me the most was such a sudden expansion of government power following eight years of government encroachment into civil rights. The Republic was never meant to be run this way. Perhaps, politically, the bailout was a bad idea, even if it was a good idea economically (which I'm not yet positive it was.) But if we weigh both worst case scenarios, one where the government gains control over every aspect of our lives, or one where we plunge into another depression, how can one decide the lesser of two evils? Surely, I don't want the government to be all powerful, but I don't like the idea that there will be a repeat depression, which required the massive expansion of governmental power. Perhaps the lesser of two evils WAS giving the government the power to address this now and then rolling back the scales as the aftershocks to the economy ended.

Post Bailout I

I'm still trying to figure out what exactly the bailout means for the markets, but I have to echo Megan McArdle here:

I didn't think it was possible to be more disgusted with politicians than I usually am, but I find it impossible to express the seething contempt that I feel at this kind of opportunism. I don't mind when they screw with the normal operation of the economy for venal personal gain. But risking a recession in order to get a cut in the capital gains tax? Letting it tank because you can always blame it on the Republicans?

She's right. It seems, from these reports at least, that politicians were more concerned about politicking than about public policy and the common good. If some believed that keeping the government out of the markets now was for the common good, then that is respectable. If they voted no because they're worried about THEIR job security, well, perhaps they don't deserve the job that they currently have at the behest of their constituents. The same goes for anybody who thought that another compromise would have gotten the deal done but didn't try for the compromise so that they had a line of attack against Republicans for the next five weeks.

Bailout Fails

The Bailout has failed to pass in the House. I'm currently doing some research as to what this means, and will report on it later.

What McCain Did't Do

Greg Sargent:

On reflection, last night's debate is best understood by what McCain failed to do do. With the dynamic of the race hardening daily in Obama's favor, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama's supposed inexperience and lack of global knowledge jarred viewers into a sudden sense that putting him in charge is risky and dangerous -- hence McCain's repetition of that word.

He didn't do that. At all.