Obama Pulls Ahead

Obama has pulled ahead in several swing state polls, causing CNN to add Michigan to "leaning Obama." FiveThirtyEight.com has several traditional Republican states, Colorado and Virginia, as leaning Obama and puts him at 74.7% odds of winning the election. Key quote:

On the eve of the first Presidential Debate, Barack Obama is perhaps in as strong a position in the polls as he has been all year, now projecting to win the election 74.7 percent of the time. Both the state and the national polls that have come out within the past 48 hours have generally been quite favorable to Obama, and suggest that he may gained an additional point or so above and beyond his "Lehman Leap" from last week.

This puts McCain in the difficult position of having to play catch up. To do so, his campaign would need to be extremely disciplined and consistent for the next month. These are all things that the McCain campaign has not been in the last two weeks.